Cardano (ADA) is attempting to stabilize after a prolonged sell-off that pushed it out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, with Bitcoin Cash overtaking it. The shift comes during a period of broader weakness for the entire crypto market, but ADA remains weaker than other coins and is far below its previous highs.
At the same time, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has publicly reaffirmed that he is not selling his ADA holdings, despite reporting large unrealized losses, and stated that his focus remains on long-term development. Against this backdrop, ADA has posted a short-term rebound, drawing attention to its technical setup.
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Oversold Bounce and Key Indicators
Cardano (ADA) has rebounded 7.85% in the past 24 hours, climbing to $0.277 after losing 16.4% last week and over 31% this month. The move happened after ADA fell below its lower Bollinger Band at $0.2545, which appears to have acted as short-term support.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators have recovered from deeply oversold levels, with RSI(14) rising from 24 to 36, and RSI(7) from 16 to 37. This signals a potential short-term bounce, though both values remain below neutral levels.
Volatility remains high, with the Average True Range (ATR) climbing to $0.0279. The ADX reading of 42 indicates strong trend momentum, suggesting that while the market is moving sharply, direction may still be uncertain. Volume is also up sharply, with a 189% increase compared to the previous week, confirming higher trading activity during the recent price swings.
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Next Technical Test: $0.3121 Resistance
The next key level for ADA is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.3121. This zone represents a major resistance point from previous price movements. Whether ADA can maintain its upward momentum and test this area will be important in determining if the current move is a short-term relief rally or the beginning of a broader recovery.
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Hoskinson Reaffirms Commitment to Cardano
During a livestream from Tokyo, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson addressed the ongoing downturn and confirmed that he is not selling any of his ADA holdings, despite acknowledging a paper loss of over $3 billion. He emphasized his continued focus on long-term development and highlighted progress on infrastructure upgrades such as Hydra, Leios, and the Midnight sidechain. Hoskinson also framed 2026 as a reset period, arguing that real-world utility will matter more than short-term price action.
His comments aimed to reassure the community and separate Cardano from the speculative elements that have shaped parts of the industry. While some of the remarks were personal, the key message was a commitment to staying the course during difficult market conditions.
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Technical Picture and Caution
The next major area of interest is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.3121, which stands as a notable resistance zone. A move toward this level would test whether the current rebound has follow-through. Trading volume has risen sharply week over week, suggesting strong participation, but also pointing to the potential for continued large price swings.
