Aster dropped to $0.95 earlier today before recovering slightly to hover near $1 – a level that now serves as psychological resistance instead of support. The token is down more than 25% this week and over 40% since the start of October.
Aster is now trading more than 58% below its $2.42 all-time high set in late September, confirming a steady decline that began shortly after the initial surge. While volume remains high across perpetual pairs, momentum has clearly shifted.
Technical Signals Remain Weak
Momentum indicators continue to lean bearish. The RSI bounced from oversold levels earlier in the week but sits at just 43. The Stochastic RSI is still at 4 – indicating persistent oversold conditions – but price action has yet to reflect meaningful support.
Aster also remains below all major moving averages on both 4-hour and daily timeframes. Structurally, the token is now back in the price zone not seen since launch – suggesting a full retrace of the initial breakout.
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Buyback Activity Offers Limited Support
According to recent reports, the Aster team has initiated a private buyback of unlocked tokens held by early influencers and media partners, offering a 5% discount.
So far, the buyback has not reversed the overall trend, though it may have helped slow the descent below $0.95. The project’s market cap has now slipped below $2 billion, and total value locked (TVL) dropped by $326 million over the past week, according to DeFiLlama.
Data Transparency Back in Focus
Earlier this month, DeFiLlama relisted Aster after a two-week removal due to unverifiable trading activity. The relisting came without a clear explanation, and gaps remain in historical data. Critics, including Dragonfly’s Haseeb Qureshi, questioned the decision, citing ongoing “black box” issues.
Aster remains a top name on DeFiLlama’s volume leaderboard, with over $15 billion in 24-hour perpetual trading activity. However, concerns persist that this volume is at least partially incentive-driven, and hard to independently verify due to the protocol’s private execution model.
Read also: Is Aster Safe? Growth Continues, But Critics Raise Questions
New Competition on the Horizon
A new decentralized exchange called Percolator, launched by Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko, is also beginning to capture attention. Built natively on Solana, the protocol is positioned as a direct competitor to Aster and Hyperliquid, with a modular architecture focused on high-frequency execution and reduced latency.
While it’s still in development, the announcement adds further pressure to Aster at a time when it’s already contending with falling usage and liquidity outflows.
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Outlook
Despite the negative trend, some traders see signs of a possible rebound. Roughly 80% of ASTER’s derivatives exposure is skewed to the short side. High upwards move could trigger millions in liquidations, possibly fueling a short squeeze.
Until then, price action remains weak. The next support lies near $0.88, with $0.70 as a potential downside target if sentiment continues to deteriorate. Recovery would require a clean break above both $1.20, supported by rising open interest and fresh inflows.
