The new year is sparking excitement among crypto investors. Following a successful 2024, many believe that 2025 could bring even more positive changes for crypto. Donald Trump’s inauguration is on the horizon, along with his talk of pro-crypto policies. Although the details remain unclear, his repeated hints at friendlier regulations have sparked hope that cryptocurrencies might thrive like never before.
Institutional involvement has also been picking up, as more investment companies try to keep pace with changing markets. Last year’s Bitcoin halving boosts optimism among investors who believe in the cyclical nature of crypto trends.
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Polymarket’s Unique Perspective
Polymarket, launched in 2020 and headquartered in Manhattan, offers a quantitative way to look at future possibilities. Participants on the platform bet on a variety of outcomes, such as election results and economic figures. Although US customers have been blocked since 2022, Polymarket still draws global traders who place bets using USDC through the Polygon network.
Each bet reflects how people feel about specific events, and these predictions can give a snapshot of broader market sentiment. One of the most talked-about areas is the likelihood of new crypto ETFs. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs already exist, so the door seems open for other major coins. Polymarket’s odds shift often, but three names – Solana, Ripple, and Litecoin – stand out right now.
Solana’s High Chance of an ETF
Solana is currently leading these predictions with a 71% chance of receiving ETF approval in 2025. This optimism arises despite the coin’s latest price correction. Just a little over a year ago, in December 2023, Solana was near $20, and it soared to around $180 now. It even became the third-largest crypto by market cap for a long time, though it has now been overtaken by Ripple, Tether and BNB.
Part of Solana’s appeal lies in its quick transaction speeds and low fees, features that have made it attractive to both developers and users seeking cost-effective platforms. Its user-friendly environment has become a go-to spot for those looking to launch tokens, particularly in the memecoin space. A further incentive is that Bitcoin and Ethereum already have ETFs. Investors and traders see Solana as an obvious next candidate, given its size and active community.
That said, regulatory challenges could surface. The SEC has labeled some cryptocurrencies as unregistered securities, and Solana’s future status remains uncertain. Gary Gensler’s resignation and the appointment of a new SEC chair by Trump may flip the script, but bureaucracies don’t always move swiftly. Even a more welcoming administration could take a while to redefine rules, so there’s no guarantee Solana’s path will be seamless.
Ripple’s Regulatory Struggle
Ripple holds a 61% shot at seeing an ETF by next year, placing it behind Solana but still quite high. The coin’s recent rise back to the third spot in market cap shows how far it has come. When Trump was elected in November 2024, it got a significant boost from rumors of favorable tax benefits for US-based projects.
Ripple’s leadership has been proactive in courting political figures. Brad Garlinghouse recently met with Trump for dinner, a move that excited many Ripple holders. Some believe direct dialogue with the new administration could reduce regulatory barriers and speed up the ETF process.
However, there is still a big issue: Ripple’s prolonged legal case with the SEC. Even though it achieved an important victory, the SEC appealed, leaving Ripple in a state of uncertainty. If the newly appointed SEC chair chooses to withdraw the appeal or negotiate a settlement, Ripple could see a smoother road ahead. If that doesn’t happen though, the ongoing court saga might complicate any push for an ETF.
Litecoin’s Fork Advantage
Litecoin shows a 42% chance of scoring an ETF next year, making it the third coin Polymarket watchers are eyeing. This is a significant drop compared to Solana and Ripple, though Litecoin has been a known name since the early days of crypto. It was once in the top three by market cap and built a reputation as a faster version of Bitcoin.
Over time, newer projects have overshadowed it, leading to lower rankings. Still, Litecoin’s brand recognition remains strong, and many casual investors can recall it as one of the first true alternatives to Bitcoin.
Part of what keeps Litecoin in the ETF conversation is its technical similarity to Bitcoin. Regulators have already cleared Bitcoin’s ETF path, so some view Litecoin as a natural extension of that logic. The argument is that if Bitcoin, which shares similar underlying technology, can be deemed acceptable, Litecoin should have a fair shot.
Yet the deciding factor may be market demand. If major institutions don’t see a need for a Litecoin ETF, it may need to wait for other crypto to pave the way.
It’s also important to note Litecoin ETF could open a door for another coins – especially Dogecoin, since it’s a fork of Litecoin. Currently, the odds of Dogecoin getting an ETF this year stand at just 34%, owing largely to its memecoin status. Still, thanks to Elon Musk’s support, nothing can be entirely ruled out.
What’s Next?
We believe these projections accurately capture investor confidence in upcoming ETFs. Though the percentages may change over time, they highlight a collective anticipation that more coins could achieve ETF approval soon.
The biggest unknown is how the incoming administration will approach crypto. Trump’s past comments hint at a more flexible approach, but political promises don’t always translate into immediate action. The SEC is a complex agency, and the new chair will have to untangle years of legal debates and define new guidelines.
For Solana, Ripple, and Litecoin, any decision that clarifies their regulatory status would be a big step toward ETF approvals. On the other hand, if the SEC continues to pursue its lawsuits, the timeline could drag on.
Additionally, a surge in crypto ETF demand could be difficult to ignore if market momentum continues. Existing crypto ETFs see substantial trading volumes, and the public is more accustomed to digital currencies than ever.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have already paved the way, making further ETF approvals less intimidating. Hopes are high that 2025 will bring major breakthroughs for several leading coins, and Solana, Ripple, and Litecoin are well-positioned among the contenders. Any ETF approval for one of them could set a positive precedent for the others.
Approval of more ETFs might lead to creation of Crypto Index Funds in the future. We’ve covered that idea here.
