Tomorrow marks Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States, at which point he will officially take office and be able to start implementing his proposed policies. Among these are several pro-crypto measures, ranging from regulatory changes and tax benefits for U.S.-based crypto ventures to the creation of a Bitcoin reserve. Crypto investors are eager to see how events in the coming days will unfold.
Will the price of crypto rise or fall? Will Bitcoin achieve a new all-time high, or will the inauguration turn into a “sell the news” event? The most honest answer we can give is that no one really knows. Consider this: if someone had claimed three days ago that Donald Trump would launch his own crypto coin, reaching billions of valuation in two days, no one would havee believed it – yet here we are.
The events of the next few days are even more unpredictable, but below we examine the possible scenarios and the reasoning behind each one.
Table of Contents
Scenario One: Nothing Special Happens
The most likely outcome for the inauguration is that cryptocurrency may not be mentioned at all. Polymarket odds currently indicate only a 36% chance that crypto or Bitcoin will be brought up.
Why is that? While Donald Trump has made pro-crypto promises, there are many other issues that may take priority, which are arguably more important to the broader American public. Although those in the crypto space are closely following every development around his proposed crypto changes, the average American might see this as a secondary issue. We saw this dynamic during the presidential debates, where neither candidate mentioned crypto.
Those who believe crypto’s price action will remain flat tomorrow also emphasize that the inauguration date has been known for weeks, as has Donald Trump’s presidency. A “sell the news” scenario requires actual news – in this case, there may be nothing novel to drive significant market movement.
Scenario Two: The Rally
If Bitcoin or crypto does receive a mention during the inauguration, it would be a positive surprise that could push cryptocurrency prices higher. This is not the most likely scenario, but it’s worth noting that the probability of a Trump crypto mention was only near 20% just a few days ago – before the launch of the TRUMP coin, which has renewed investor confidence.
Supporters of a rally might also look beyond the inauguration speech itself to the fact that Donald Trump will formally take office. Will he begin implementing his pro-crypto promises immediately? Realistically, policy implementation takes time and can face obstacles from other political figures. However, any clear signs that Trump intends to prioritize crypto reforms early in his term would likely reassure investors, potentially driving prices upward.
Scenario Three: Prices Fall
Some investors are anticipating immediate action on crypto – or at least a mention of it – once Donald Trump is in office. If none of that materializes, the market might see a decline as these investors unwind their long positions. Another possibility is that Trump delays his pro-crypto initiatives or backtracks on some promises, which could also lead to price drops.
An unlikely but still possible risk scenario is that the inauguration does not proceed as planned or is interrupted for any reason. Should that occur, both crypto and traditional stock markets would likely experience a significant correction.
The TRUMP Token Wildcard
The situation becomes even more complex with the existence of the official Donald Trump token. There is a chance Trump could highlight his own token over Bitcoin or other US-based cryptocurrencies. However, given the volatility around this token, it is difficult to predict exactly how that might affect the broader crypto market.
Long-Term Outcome
If you are in crypto for the long run, whatever transpires during and immediately after the inauguration should not overly concern you. Of course, a positive outcome for cryptocurrencies would be preferable, but they will endure regardless.
Even if pro-crypto changes are enacted later than expected, they would still contribute significantly to crypto adoption and make digital assets more attractive to investors. Moreover, the fact that Donald Trump is viewed as pro-crypto could potentially influence other countries, igniting a wave of global adoption.
Need a quick and easy way to see what’s happening in crypto over the next few days? Check out our Crypto Events Calendar!
