The summer season, typically quieter for financial markets, has also shown patterns of weaker activity in the cryptocurrency space. While traditional stock markets have long recognized a summer slowdown, Bitcoin and altcoins share a similar trend, though not always in the same way.
Whether linked to the “Sell in May and Go Away” pattern or broader investor behavior, this seasonal shift is visible in market volumes, price action, and overall returns.
Read also: Sell in May and Go Away? Not This Time (May 2025 Summary)
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Summer Trends in Crypto Activity
Cryptocurrency markets often mimic traditional seasonal patterns but with some differences. June through September is commonly marked by lower performance. A seasonal analytics firm, Seasonax, tracks a 10-year average return for Bitcoin and highlights the May 21 to September 25 window as a weak spot. Between 2017 and 2024, Bitcoin posted an average annualized return of -17.6% in that range, with multiple years of consistent losses.
Investor returns during these months are usually significantly lower compared to the rest of the calendar year. The drop isn’t isolated to Bitcoin. Across the digital asset sector, lower summer performance is often observed. A major factor behind this pattern is volume: trading and futures activity tends to shrink during the summer, creating thinner markets that struggle to hold prior momentum.
One specific example comes from 2025. In June, Bitcoin futures volumes declined sharply, from $1.93 trillion to $1.55 trillion. This nearly 20% reduction reflects the recurring summer volume dip. The reduced market activity impacts liquidity and limits price movement potential, while also amplifying sudden moves triggered by external news.
Bitcoin’s Summer Returns
Bitcoin’s historical summer performance reveals a mix of downturns and comebacks, depending on the cycle year. The asset’s four-year halving cycle helps define these phases. The summer period that follows a halving often produces the highest returns, averaging 17.3% per month over three cycles. For example, in 2012, the summer stretch delivered 40.7% monthly gains.
However, these rallies don’t happen every summer. If the season follows a peak or arrives during macroeconomic strain, it often brings a correction. In 2013, after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin rose sharply in the spring, only to fall 70% during the summer before rebounding later that year. A similar trend played out in 2017 when Bitcoin dropped more than 35% in mid-summer before finishing the year strongly.
The 2021 cycle followed suit. After rising from around $28,000 early in the year to nearly $60,000, Bitcoin dropped back close to $28,000 during the summer months – a 50% decline – before rebounding in Q4. Each of these summers followed a halving and began with gains that gave way to corrections.
Bitcoin’s Quarterly Returns
In several years, Q3 returns (July–September) have either initiated major uptrends or continued existing ones. For instance, 2013 and 2017 posted Q3 gains of +40.6% and +80.41% respectively – both being post-halving years with significant rallies continuing into Q4.
2021 followed a similar pattern. Q3 recovered strongly with +25.01% after a sharp Q2 drop, showing how Bitcoin often rebounds during the summer months. Though Q4 in 2021 was modest at +5.45%, the shift from Q2’s -40.36% shows a seasonal strength tendency after halving years, echoing previous cycle behavior.
2025 is forming a similar setup. Q2 saw a +29.74% recovery from a red Q1 (-11.82%), and Q3 has just started with a small gain of +2.27%. If prior halving-year trends hold, Q4 could show outsized gains again, as seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021 during similar periods.
Years without strong summer recoveries exist, too. In 2014, Q3 dropped -39.74% and Q4 stayed red. 2018 had a small Q3 gain of +3.61% but then plunged in Q4. Still, the post-halving Q3s – 2013, 2017, 2021 – stand out, and 2025 appears to be tracking a similar seasonal trend so far.
Weaker Trading for Stocks in the Same Period
Traditional equities also show seasonal weakness during the summer months. Marketwatch and BlackRock have both highlighted that U.S. stock markets see average returns drop during the June to September period. The average monthly return between May and October is nearly 0.9% lower than in other months.
The phrase “summer doldrums” is commonly used to describe this phase of slow movement. Market participants often step away during these months, leading to a drop in volume and reduced market breadth. That said, the declines aren’t always dramatic. Some summers yield positive results, though they rarely match the stronger periods from November to April.
The market saying “Sell in May and go away” captures this idea, signaling that May to October often underperforms the six months that follow. In practice, the result is often subdued trading rather than outright losses, though weak months like June and September stand out more than others.
2022 to 2024: A Pattern with Variations
In 2022, global market stress combined with internal crypto issues created a difficult summer. Bitcoin and other digital assets fell sharply as the Terra collapse, interest rate hikes, and macro uncertainty dragged the sector down. Equities managed to stay more stable during the same period, highlighting how crypto was more sensitive to headline risk.
A year later, the 2023 summer brought a partial rebound. After early-year weakness, the market regained strength mid-year, helped by optimism surrounding possible Bitcoin ETF approvals. This contrasted sharply with the 2022 decline, showing how narrative and news events could affect summer performance even when volume patterns stay the same.
By June 2024, volume decline once again marked the summer mood. Trading volumes dropped about 20–30%, consistent with previous years. Though broader sentiment remained mixed, technical signals and long-term cycle data hinted at a possible upward break if conditions shifted in July or August.
Forecasts for Summer 2025
The summer of 2025 may not repeat past patterns exactly. Some analysts suggest that a reversal could take place after a choppy July, setting up for a breakout by August or September. If 2025 follows previous post-halving cycles, late summer might deliver strong results. Bitcoin rose 160% in late summer 2017 and 77% in 2021.
As of the end of June 2025, Bitcoin had closed at $108,383. With strong technical levels and certain patterns aligning, projections for $115,000 in July have surfaced, though caution remains due to possible short-term corrections before any breakout.
Whether these gains materialize will depend on volume returning, news flow stabilizing, and broader investor interest picking up. For now, volume and sentiment suggest summer 2025 remains a test of patience, even with a possible upside later in the quarter.
