Can Bitcoin Reach $2.8M Next Year? The Simple Answer: No, It Can’t.

Chart of Bitcoin price with few BTC coins

To put things into perspective, for Bitcoin to reach a value of $2.8 million per coin, its market capitalization would need to exceed the value of the entire United States economy! This scenario is incredibly unrealistic for next year or even the foreseeable future.

But why do some cryptocurrencies skyrocket, sometimes increasing hundreds of times in value?

Understanding Market Capitalization is Key

A crucial factor when analyzing the potential of any cryptocurrency is its market cap. Smaller market cap coins have more room for growth – mainly because fewer investors have heard of them or invested in them. In contrast, Bitcoin is so massive that moving its price significantly would require an enormous influx of capital. While not impossible, it’s highly improbable.

For example, let’s imagine Bitcoin’s market cap grows by $1 billion. That would be less than a 0.1% increase. However, if the same amount of capital flowed into a smaller coin, the growth would be much more significant. Consider Dogecoin, still among the top 10 cryptocurrencies: a $1 billion injection would represent a 7% growth. For WIF, which ranks toward the end of the top 50, that same $1 billion would lead to a 66% increase. Coins that hover around the top 500 would experience an astounding 2000% growth!

(Of course, market cap doesn’t directly translate into price growth, but under stable tokenomics, it’s a close approximation)

Should You Skip Bitcoin and Focus on Small Coins Instead?

Not so fast.

While smaller coins offer higher potential rewards, Bitcoin and other large-cap coins have established their utility and have proven themselves over time. They are popular, have significant adoption, and are backed by strong investor confidence. This makes them less volatile and more stable. Despite recent market downturns, Bitcoin is only down about 30% from its all-time high in March. By comparison, many altcoins have lost much more value and haven’t recovered to their previous levels.

A quick glance at the top 100 cryptocurrencies reveals constant turnover, with new names appearing almost daily. While small coins can offer high returns, the risks are equally high. And while Bitcoin has proven its resilience, many altcoins haven’t stood the test of time. Take Peercoin or NXT, for instance – once top-tier coins, now largely forgotten.

The Temptation of Small Coins

Perhaps you’re thinking, “I’ll just invest a small amount in these tiny coins. Surely, one of them will explode, and I’ll get rich!” But the truth is, the smaller the coin, the higher the risk. There are thousands of cryptocurrencies out there, and it’s nearly impossible to predict which ones will be successful. Worse, many of the smallest coins can be outright scams – rugpulls or honeypots designed to trap unsuspecting investors.

In many cases, these coins aren’t even listed on popular exchanges, making them difficult to trade and invest in securely. If you find the technology behind a coin promising, it might be worth a gamble – but be prepared to lose your investment. In these cases, the advice is always the same: only invest what you can afford to lose.

And Then There Are Memecoins…

Memecoins like Dogecoin have gained widespread attention, but for every Dogecoin, there are hundreds of new, meaningless memecoins created daily. They hold no inherent value beyond their meme status, making it impossible to predict which, if any, will take off. At this point, investing in memecoins is closer to gambling than actual investment.

To make matters worse, the memecoin market is rife with scammers. Rugpulls and honeypot schemes prey on the popularity of these coins, making it even riskier to engage with them.

Moral of the Story

Ultimately, investing in cryptocurrency boils down to the classic dilemma: high risk equals high reward, while low risk means lower returns. But we advise against aiming for excessive risk. If your token isn’t even listed on exchanges, it might not be worth the gamble.

And seriously – don’t gamble on memecoins. You’re better than that.

Peter Johnson

Peter Johnson