Recent advances in quantum computing have renewed discussions around its potential to disrupt Bitcoin. The central concern is whether future quantum machines could become powerful enough to break Bitcoin’s cryptographic protections, allowing attackers to forge signatures and steal coins.
While this risk is widely acknowledged as theoretical and long-term, it has prompted both research and early-stage preparations within the Bitcoin ecosystem.
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The Current State of Quantum Technology
Bitcoin’s security relies on two key cryptographic elements: the SHA-256 hash function and the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA). The concern centers on quantum algorithms like Shor’s, which could eventually be used to reverse ECDSA and expose private keys. However, to do this within a useful time frame, a quantum computer would need tens of millions of stable, error-corrected qubits. Today’s systems are far from that benchmark.
Google’s most advanced quantum computer, Willow, has 105 qubits. Researchers estimate that breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography in under 10 minutes – the average time before a transaction is confirmed – would require about 13 million physical qubits, meaning practical attacks remain far from possible yet.
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Michael Saylor and Strategy’s Security Program
Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), has recently acknowledged the long-term risks posed by quantum computing and confirmed that the company has initiated a Bitcoin security program. The program’s goal is to coordinate with the global cybersecurity and Bitcoin communities to support the development of quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions.
Saylor emphasized that the threat is not immediate but deserves responsible preparation. He stated that if upgrades become necessary, they should be introduced through community consensus rather than forced changes.
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Limited Exposure of Bitcoin Supply
Not everyone agree on the scale of a threat. According to new data from CoinShares, only about 1.6 million BTC – roughly 8% of total supply – are stored in older address formats (P2PK) with exposed public keys. Of these, only around 10,200 BTC are considered realistically at risk in the event of a sudden quantum breakthrough. Most modern wallet formats, such as P2PKH and P2SH, hide public keys until coins are spent, making them more (but not fully) resistant to quantum attacks.
These figures suggest that even if a quantum machine became capable of breaking ECDSA, the immediate financial impact would be limited and spread across tens of thousands of small wallets.
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Uncertainty
There is currently no consensus in the Bitcoin community on how or when to respond. Some advocate for immediate upgrades, others argue for a slower approach focusedon monitoring technological developments and preparing voluntary migration paths. Post-quantum signature schemes are already being standardized by institutions like NIST, and Bitcoin could adopt these through soft forks or optional upgrades if necessary. Forced changes or rushed forks, however, carry risks such as software bugs, legal complications, and erosion of user trust.
However, while quantum computing poses a theoretical threat to Bitcoin, the technology required to carry out such an attack does not yet exist. The risk is being studied and addressed by researchers, developers, and institutions. With timelines estimated at 10–20 years or more, most experts agree that Bitcoin has sufficient time to adapt through planned and cautious upgrades.
