Every year around this time, the same phrase starts making the rounds: “Sell in May and go away”. It’s an old saying from the world of stocks, based on the idea that markets tend to underperform during the summer months. Investors supposedly take a break, trading volumes drop, and price charts get sluggish. But this is crypto – and things don’t always follow the rules.
Even so, the question is fair: should crypto holders be worried about May?
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Where the Saying Comes From
This idea goes way back. The original version was “Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day”, a reference to a horse race in the UK that takes place in September. The basic point was simple: summertime was slow, so smart traders took their profits in May and came back in the fall when things picked up.
And for traditional markets, the data mostly backs it up. U.S. equities have historically returned less between May and October than in the rest of the year. The S&P 500’s average gain in that stretch is around 1.8%, much lower than the 7% average from November to April.
But does that pattern hold for Bitcoin?
Looking at the Numbers
Over the past few years, May has been more red than green for crypto. In 2021, Bitcoin dropped a brutal 35% that month. In 2022, it fell again – about 15% – partly because of the Terra/Luna crash that triggered broader panic. 2023 was quieter, but still flat. Only in 2024 did we see a decent move up, with BTC finishing the month 11% higher.
And even that gain didn’t come easily. There were big swings along the way, and traders spent most of May trying to figure out if the bounce was real or just temporary. Zoom out further, and there’s a clear pattern: Bitcoin doesn’t do that well in summer. June is usually worse. Over the last five years, four of those Junes have been negative.
Still, nothing is guaranteed. In 2019, Bitcoin jumped 52% in May – its strongest month that year. Patterns can help frame expectations, but they’re not a rulebook.
Will 2025 Be Different?
It might be. Bitcoin is starting May just under $100,000, and sentiment finally looks better. The Fear and Greed Index is back above 50 – a level we hadn’t seen in March and most of April. Traders seem less nervous.
There’s also a chance that the trade war won’t hit as hard as feared. Recent earnings from Microsoft and Meta helped lift the mood, and there are some signs that the U.S. economy might avoid the worst-case scenario. It’s early, but the tone has shifted.
Expectations around altcoin ETFs are also building. A few Polymarket contracts show a strong belief that at least one will be approved this year – even if not in May. That’s enough to keep institutional interest alive.
Read also: Brazil Launches First Spot XRP ETF – Will Others Follow?
It’s Just a Saying
Should you worry because May has been rough in the past? Probably not. The phrase is just a saying. It’s based on some seasonal patterns, but it doesn’t predict anything. This May will be shaped more by macro trends and geopolitical situation.
And if you’re thinking long-term, one month doesn’t matter much anyway. Whether May is red, green, or sideways, it’s unlikely to change the bigger picture.
Read more: Bitcoin Halving, One Year Later – How This Cycle Played Out
