Bitcoin has fallen back under the $100,000 mark, currently trading near $99,500. The drop comes as part of a broader market pullback, with other major digital assets also in the red. Bitcoin is down around 2% in the past 24 hours, following a rejection near $104,000 earlier in the week.
This movement comes as traders reassess the likelihood of interest rate cuts in December, which had previously supported more bullish positioning across risk assets.
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Rate Cut Odds Now Near 50/50
Data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool now shows only a 47.4% chance of a rate cut next month. Less than a month ago, that probability was 95%. The shift reflects growing uncertainty around the U.S. economic outlook after the end of the 43-day government shutdown, which delayed or cancelled key reports on jobs and inflation.
Without this data, the Federal Reserve may find it harder to justify rate easing in December, leading investors to adjust expectations across equities and crypto.
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Broader Market Weakness Weighs on Crypto
U.S. stock indexes also fell on Thursday. The Nasdaq slid 2%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.3%. Major tech stocks were hit hardest, including Nvidia (-4.1%) and Tesla (-6%). Analysts pointed to reduced liquidity and cautious sentiment following recent fiscal tightening during the shutdown period.
The shift in rate expectations has dampened risk appetite across the board, with crypto-linked equities and miners seeing double-digit losses in some cases.
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Bitcoin Still Holding Up Longer-Term
While Bitcoin has pulled back from recent highs, the decline remains moderate in the context of its overall performance this year. The asset is still up significantly year-to-date and is stable compared to some smaller tokens and high-volatility sectors.
With the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for December 10, traders are likely to remain cautious in the coming weeks. Until there is more clarity on monetary policy, Bitcoin might trade within a tighter range.
