Ripple’s XRP has seen a strong rally, climbing to $2.73—a gain of over 11% in the last 24 hours and 15% over the past week. This resurgence is largely fueled by growing speculation that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). Recent developments, including the SEC’s acknowledgment of Grayscale’s XRP ETF application, have ignited optimism across the market. However, with a final decision still months away.
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XRP Recovery
After Donald Trump was elected as U.S. president, Ripple skyrocketed beyond $3, driven by optimism around potential regulatory changes favorable to American cryptocurrencies.
However, February’s tariff-related market correction dragged XRP down to the $2.40–$2.50 range, from which it struggled to recover. And while the latest rally suggests that investor interest remains robust, whether XRP can reclaim the $3 threshold remains uncertain.
There is an increase in investor activity over recent days. Trading volume has surged by 46% in just one day, reflecting renewed confidence, while weekly trading volume is up 42%. In the last week, trading volume has increased by 42%. Despite this short-term momentum, monthly volume remains nearly 50% lower.
SEC Acknowledged XRP ETF Filing
As we mentioned earlier, the key driver behind XRP’s rise is the growing belief that the SEC may eventually approve a spot XRP ETF. While the SEC has only acknowledged Grayscale’s filing, this is a crucial first step. If approved, the ETF would allow traditional investors to gain exposure to XRP without directly holding the asset, potentially increasing demand and liquidity.
XRP’s legal battle with the SEC has been a significant weight on the asset for years. While Ripple secured a partial victory in 2024 when a court ruled that XRP is not a security when sold on exchanges, the legal uncertainty is still here, due to SEC appealing. But now, with a new SEC administration in place, investors speculate that the lawsuit could finally be nearing its conclusion. Some believe that an ETF approval could coincide with a resolution in Ripple’s case, further boosting confidence in XRP’s long-term prospects.
Investor Confidence in ETF Approval
Investor sentiment surrounding an XRP ETF is already visible on the Polymarket prediction platform, where the probability of an ETF approval by year-end has surged to 81% – a significant increase from just a few weeks ago. Broader optimism around ETFs can also be seen for other altcoins, including Litecoin, Solana and Dogecoin, which could set a precedent for further regulatory approvals that would boost XRP’s case.
Can the Rally Hold?
Despite the bullish momentum, XRP is not without risks. The cryptocurrency market is highly reactive to regulatory news, and while the SEC’s acknowledgment of the ETF filing is positive, it does not guarantee approval. The review process can take months, and the final decision could still be unfavorable.
Moreover, while XRP has seen strong gains, it has faced resistance in recent weeks. If momentum weakens, a retracement to the $2.50 range is possible. However, technical indicators suggest that if XRP stabilizes above $2.70, it could regain the necessary strength for a potential rally back to $3.
Conclusion
XRP is finally recovering, driven by ETF speculation and renewed optimism about regulatory clarity. The market’s reaction to the SEC’s acknowledgment of Grayscale’s application has been overwhelmingly positive, but long-term investors should remain cautious. While the possibility of an ETF approval presents a major opportunity, the decision is still months away, and regulatory uncertainty remains a factor.
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