Solana (SOL) has officially broken below the key psychological level of $100, now trading near $95 – a price range last seen in early 2024. The drop comes amid broader weakness across the crypto market, but what’s striking is how Solana remains stuck, even as Bitcoin attempts to claw back losses.
The $100 level was more than just a round number. For many traders, it served as a mental floor – a last bastion of near-term optimism. Its loss, even after BTC recovered from $73,000, shows a lack of confidence in SOL’s ability to recover in the short term.
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Prediction Markets Reflect Deep Skepticism
A glance at Polymarket prediction markets suggests the broader sentiment is deteriorating. As of today, 69% of participants believe Solana will fall below $90 during February. More strikingly, over a third (37%) think it will sink under $80. Optimism is far harder to find: only 26% of traders believe SOL will reclaim $120 by month’s end.
Zooming out, the longer-term expectations are equally mixed. While 85% of users think Solana will dip below $80 at some point in 2026, more than half (56%) expect a move below $60, and a third even bet on sub-$40 prices – a scenario that would imply losing over half of the current, already low value.
Yet it’s not entirely bleak. Nearly half (48%) still expect Solana to reach at least $160 before the year ends, suggesting that while sentiment is battered, long-term hope isn’t fully extinguished. That said, fewer than 1 in 5 see SOL returning to its highs above $200 in 2026.
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Analysts Scale Back Their Bullish View
Standard Chartered recently revised its near-term forecast for Solana, cutting its end-2026 price target to $250 from $310. However, the bank doubled down on its long-term vision, projecting a $2,000 price target by 2030, driven by growing adoption of stablecoin-based micropayments and low-fee, high-throughput infrastructure.
Still, as with all forecasts, reality can diverge sharply. Just months ago, the same analyst team had claimed Bitcoin would never fall below $100,000 again – a level BTC hasn’t even touched in 2026. These revisions serve as a reminder that while institutional models offer insight, they don’t guarantee outcomes.
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Strengths Remain
Despite the downturn, Solana still holds relevance as one of crypto’s fastest and most active ecosystems. It’s home to a vibrant memecoin scene, active DEXs, and projects like the Solana Seeker phone. Recent integrations, such as Jupiter DEX with Polymarket, show developers and platforms are continuing to build.
But fundamentals alone may not be enough – at least not right now. In the current environment, dominated by fear, macro uncertainty, and heavy liquidations, technical innovation must compete with negative sentiment and investor caution. For Solana to stabilize and rebound meaningfully, it may require a broader shift in risk appetite.
